Some Monday Philosophy - Trends, Support And Resistance Levels Seen My Way

Religion


Every day I am more and more convinced, that so-called, "price action" is some bizarre form of religion. Already as a high-school kid, I have made a lot of tests on fx charts. I tried to find correlations between the various trend indicators and the later behavior of financial instruments. I like numbers, I know how to collect and process data, and still, I was never successful. The conclusion was simple. The strength of a trend is not, in any way, correlated with future performance. The price movement is a consequence of changes in supply and demand. Period. 

Another mountain of stupidity is built around so-called, support and resistance levels. Just like trends, you can see them everywhere. You can see how often charts struggle to break them, and how often they bounce off them. There is one problem, however. They always break or bounce with a 50/50 chance. In fact, when you check historical data, the value of any financial instrument will always go up or down with a 50/50 chance from any point. Even when the chart is trending! The support or resistance levels are no different. Why bother with them at all?

The "price action church" is a little different from other religions. Normally, it may be hard to believe in God, when you cannot see Him. Here, it is even more difficult to believe that something that you can see, does not exist.

Back To Home Page