You may think, that the US or Euro Area balance on the current account (the difference between exports and imports) is an important variable shaping the EUR/USD exchange rate. This way of thinking is logical. Moving products across borders naturally has a lot to do with currency exchange rates. Also, this is exactly what they say in the books.
Is there any evidence, that financial instruments follow trends?
Unfortunately, I have to disappoint you. The US balance on the current account shows no correlation at all with the EUR / USD exchange rate. If you usually impatiently wait for this data to include it in your strategy based on fundamental factors, you better let it go.
US Balance On Current Account [% change] vs EUR/USD Exchange rate [% change] |